← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 36% | 41% | 2.71 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 32% | 31% | 3.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Sevilla FC +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 37% | 2.54 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Sergio Ramos · Sevilla FC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Kike Salas · Sevilla FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Sevilla FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Óscar Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Isaac Romero · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| coach days |
| 364.00 |
| 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1634.62 | 1642.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.05 | -6.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 38.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 13.81 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.78 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 28.91 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.74 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.37 |