← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 17, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 38% | 42% | 2.59 | value: +8% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 31% | 30% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.12 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.25 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 22 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand