← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 46% | 40% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.43 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 26% | 31% | 3.73 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Girona +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Getafe CF +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 53% | 2.06 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Savinho · Girona |
| 11' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 15' | 🟨 | Aleix García · Girona |
| 33' | ⚽ | Yellu Santiago · Getafe CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 52' | 🟨 | Luis Milla · Getafe CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Óscar Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| coach days |
| 350.00 |
| 989.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1622.02 | 1774.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.13 | -18.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 35.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 1.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.87 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 26.19 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.65 | 1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.49 |