← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 65% | 68% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 14% | 13% | 7.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF +1 | 54% | 1.82 |
| CA Osasuna +1 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 46% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 7' | ⚽ | Ante Budimir · CA Osasuna |
| 18' | ⚽ | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jorge Herrando · CA Osasuna |
| 44' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lucas Torró · CA Osasuna |
| 61' | ⚽ | Brahim Díaz · Real Madrid CF |
| 63' | 🟨 | Unai García · CA Osasuna |
| 64' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Iker Muñoz |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 2115.00 |
| 1019.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1622.94 | 1923.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.90 | 3.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | 1.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| league points | 36.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 90.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.80 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | 1.94 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.87 | 28.16 |
| state index | 0.62 | 1.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 2.21 |