← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 10, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 73% | 81% | 1.33 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 6.04 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 10% | 6% | 10.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −1.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −1.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 65% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 35% | 2.52 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 25' | 🟨 | Luca De La Torre · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Eduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
| 55' | 🟨 | Óscar Mingueza · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | Vicente Guaita · Real Madrid CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Javier Manquillo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Carlos Domínguez · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arda Güler · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 11 |
| 13 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 1013.00 |
| 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1920.13 | 1589.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.91 | 16.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 66.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 8.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | -1.00 |
| solidity v1 | 1.03 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 27.50 |
| state index | 1.47 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.43 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.03 |