← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 51% | 61% | 1.93 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| Granada win | 21% | 16% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Granada +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 56% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 37% | 44% | 2.61 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 23' | 🟨 | Hamari Traoré · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 33' | ⚽ | Umar Sadiq · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | ⚽ | Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergio Ruiz Alonso · Granada |
| 63' | 🟨 | Umar Sadiq · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 80' | ⚽ | Robin Le Normand · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 85' | ⚽ | André Silva · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days |
| 8.00 |
| 1925.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1512.01 | 1730.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.25 | -38.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 36.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 14.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 6.19 | 7.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 1.15 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.67 | 25.28 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.32 |