← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 54% | 60% | 1.79 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.70 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 20% | 16% | 4.97 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 46% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 54% | 2.09 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Cadiz |
| 30' | 🟨 | Memphis Depay · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 31' | 🟨 | Juanmi · Cadiz |
| 48' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nahuel Molina · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 62' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 64' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Cadiz |
| 71' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 84' | 🟨 | Arthur Vermeeren · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcos Llorente · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 68.00 |
| 4482.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1529.63 | 1841.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.44 | -4.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 1.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 19.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 2.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.27 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 29.64 | 28.56 |
| state index | -1.07 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 2.14 |