← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 2, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 47% | 45% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.26 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 24% | 26% | 4.18 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Getafe CF |
| 11' | ⚽ | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 14' | ⚽ | Mason Greenwood · Getafe CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Sandro Ramírez · Las Palmas |
| 43' | 🟨 | Mason Greenwood · Getafe CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sergi Cardona · Las Palmas |
| 57' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Las Palmas |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ilaix Moriba · Getafe CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 67' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 28 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| 🟨 |
| Javier Muñoz · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 336.00 | 791.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1630.82 | 1642.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.18 | -2.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 34.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | 1.26 |
| solidity v1 | -1.30 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.15 | — |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 2.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 0.88 |