← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 18, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Muniz Ruiz, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 58% | 55% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 19% | 22% | 5.37 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Madrid CF +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 54% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 46% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand