← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 81% | 87% | 1.19 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 12% | 10% | 8.06 | fair |
| Granada win | 7% | 3% | 14.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −2 | 50% | 1.98 |
| FC Barcelona −2 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 29% | 3.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Antonio Puertas · Granada |
| 14' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sergio Ruiz Alonso · Granada |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ricard Sánchez · Granada |
| 60' | ⚽ | Facundo Pellistri · Granada |
| 63' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Barcelona |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ignasi Miquel · Granada |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fermín López · FC Barcelona |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ignasi Miquel · Granada |
| 80' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys |
| coach days | 225.00 | 467.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1912.21 | 1554.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.10 | 1.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.80 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.79 |
| league points | 50.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 8.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 0.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.82 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.01 | 26.10 |
| state index | 1.07 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.37 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.15 | 1.25 |