← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 47% | 54% | 2.11 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 23% | 19% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Real Betis Balompié −0.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 54% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 46% | 2.41 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Mason Greenwood · Getafe CF |
| 19' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Real Betis Balompié |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 40' | 🟨 | Juan Miranda · Real Betis Balompié |
| 41' | 🟨 | Assane Diao · Real Betis Balompié |
| 43' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gastón Álvarez · Getafe CF |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sergi Altimira · Real Betis Balompié |
| 60' | 🟨 | Johnny Cardoso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 62' | 🟨 | Yellu Santiago · Getafe CF |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 64' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | David Soria · Getafe CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rui Silva · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 1282.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1705.21 | 1623.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.31 | -20.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.00 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 34.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 27.60 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.18 |