← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 40% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.93 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 53% | 1.88 |
| CA Osasuna −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 57% | 1.39 | fair |
| Over | 31% | 43% | 3.10 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Pablo Ibáñez · CA Osasuna |
| -5' | 🟨 | Juan Iglesias · Getafe CF |
| 9' | ⚽ | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
| 26' | 🟨 | Raúl García de Haro · CA Osasuna |
| 29' | 🟨 | Moi Gómez · CA Osasuna |
| 31' | ⚽ | Iker Muñoz · CA Osasuna |
| 39' | 🟨 | Luis Milla · Getafe CF |
| 64' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 68' | ⚽ | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 80' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CA Osasuna | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Sadar |
| ⚽ |
| Jesús Areso · CA Osasuna |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Juan Cruz · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2060.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1610.19 | 1629.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.29 | 4.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 22.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 16.88 | 18.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.59 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 28.37 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.29 |