← Primera Division 2023-24 · Fri, Jan 12, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 47% | 52% | 2.07 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 24% | 22% | 4.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sevilla FC −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 59% | 1.59 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 41% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Kike García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 23' | 🟨 | Rafa Marín · Deportivo Alavés |
| 26' | ⚽ | Nahuel Tenaglia · Deportivo Alavés |
| 40' | ⚽ | Kike García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 50' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Sevilla FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marcão · Sevilla FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Rafa Mir · Sevilla FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mariano Díaz · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Carlos Benavídez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 82' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rubén Duarte · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 42.00 | 621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 3.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1696.42 | 1594.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.91 | -9.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 8.07 | 10.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.72 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.28 | 25.77 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.89 |