← Primera Division 2023-24 · Thu, Jan 4, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Pablo González Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 64% | 66% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +5% |
| Las Palmas win | 16% | 12% | 6.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Barcelona +1.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 56% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 44% | 2.44 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Las Palmas |
| 20' | 🟨 | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · FC Barcelona |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alex Suárez · Las Palmas |
| 79' | 🟨 | Saúl Coco · Las Palmas |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 88' | 🟨 | Javier Muñoz · Las Palmas |
| 89' | 🟨 | Sergi Cardona · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kirian Rodríguez · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟥 | Daley Sinkgraven · Las Palmas |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| İlkay Gündoğan · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 733.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1647.87 | 1912.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.54 | -23.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 1.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.66 |
| league points | 25.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 2.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.78 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 24.95 | 27.18 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.59 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.72 | 2.85 |