← Primera Division 2023-24 · Tue, Jan 2, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 64% | 66% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 12% | 13% | 8.34 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 50% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 50% | 2.39 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand