← Primera Division 2023-24 · Tue, Jan 2, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 41% | 43% | 2.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.00 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 28% | 29% | 3.57 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 57% | 1.46 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 43% | 2.89 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 4' | 🟨 | Alfonso Espino · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 19' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Juanmi Latasa · Getafe CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Kike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 40' | 🟨 | Juanmi Latasa · Getafe CF |
| 40' | 🟥 | Juanmi Latasa · Getafe CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 47' | ⚽ | Sergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 50' | 🟥 | Mason Greenwood · Getafe CF |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano |
| 54' |
| 🟨 |
| Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 276.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1699.08 | 1640.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.10 | -28.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 26.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 13.81 | 13.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.90 | 28.01 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.69 |