← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 61% | 55% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.27 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 17% | 21% | 5.99 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sevilla FC −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid −1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 58% | 1.81 | value: +5% |
| Under | 46% | 42% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano |