← Primera Division 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 19, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 42% | 51% | 2.28 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Valencia CF win | 27% | 22% | 3.66 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Valencia CF −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 65% | 1.65 | value: +7% |
| Over | 41% | 35% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Hugo Guillamón · Valencia CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jesús Vázquez · Valencia CF |
| 61' | ⚽ | Sergi Canós · Valencia CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 75' | 🟨 | Selim Amallah · Valencia CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fran Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Thierry Correia · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 171.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1651.17 | 1672.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.48 | -18.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -1.17 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 29.13 | 24.94 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.78 |