← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 57% | 60% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +4% |
| Granada win | 19% | 15% | 5.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Granada −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 42% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 58% | 2.01 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Abanca-Balaídos |