← Primera Division 2023-24 · Mon, Dec 4, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 62% | 59% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.28 | value: +11% |
| Cadiz win | 15% | 15% | 6.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −1 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Cadiz −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 50% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 50% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Iza Carcelén · Cadiz |
| 16' | ⚽ | Chris Ramos · Cadiz |
| 21' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 33' | 🟥 | Víctor Chust · Cadiz |
| 45' | 🟨 | David Gil · Cadiz |
| 57' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mamadou Mbaye · Cadiz |
| 74' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Dotor · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio Abanca-Balaídos |
| coach days | 156.00 | 702.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1567.74 | 1568.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.56 | -20.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 9.20 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -1.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 27.46 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 0.74 |