← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 66% | 62% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.77 | value: +6% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Athletic Club −1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 54% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 46% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Daniel Vivian · Athletic Club |
| 23' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 32' | 🟨 | Alfonso Espino · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Alfonso Espino · Athletic Club |
| 64' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 68' | ⚽ | Nico Williams · Athletic Club |
| 87' | 🟨 | Radamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 549.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1755.69 | 1674.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.10 | 17.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 4.80 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.64 | 29.58 |
| state index | 0.80 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 2.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 0.98 |