← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 26, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 59% | 54% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.95 | value: +3% |
| Sevilla FC win | 16% | 20% | 6.09 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol −0.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Sevilla FC −0.75 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 43% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 57% | 2.11 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (og) | Marko Dmitrović · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 22' | ⚽ | Umar Sadiq · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 33' | 🟨 | Mikel Merino · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 60' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Hamari Traoré · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sergio Ramos · Sevilla FC |
| 88' | 🟥 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 88' | 🟥 | Sergio Ramos · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Reale Arena |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 1821.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1773.41 | 1694.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.37 | -4.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 13.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 28.66 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.07 |