← Primera Division 2023-24 · Fri, Nov 10, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 57% | 59% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.04 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 19% | 19% | 5.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 60% | 1.74 | value: +4% |
| Under | 44% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 37' | ⚽ | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 39' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 52' | ⚽ | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 56' | 🟨 | Unai Simón · Athletic Club |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Álex Berenguer · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Vicente Guaita · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 527.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1748.06 | 1619.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.61 | -20.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 21.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 5.10 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 26.99 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.49 |