← Primera Division 2023-24 · Mon, Nov 6, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 47% | 49% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 22% | 21% | 4.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 59% | 1.48 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 41% | 2.82 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 13' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 44' | 🟥 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 59' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mason Greenwood · Getafe CF |
| 76' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gastón Álvarez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| coach days | 219.00 | 674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1663.40 | 1629.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.77 | -22.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 36.20 |
| rest days | 9.15 | 9.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -1.52 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 29.76 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.70 |