← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 40% | 37% | 2.41 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 31% | 33% | 3.13 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 46% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 54% | 2.05 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Carl Starfelt · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 28' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · Sevilla FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Renato Tapia · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 65' | 🟥 | Renato Tapia · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Óliver Torres · Sevilla FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Abanca-Balaídos |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 126.00 | 34.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1617.34 | 1745.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.85 | 2.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.94 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 30.25 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.42 |