← Primera Division 2023-24 · Mon, Oct 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 41% | 45% | 2.39 | value: +7% |
| Granada win | 32% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Villarreal CF +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 51% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 49% | 2.33 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
| 28' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ricard Sánchez · Granada |
| 34' | ⚽ | Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 50' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · Villarreal CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Carlos Romero · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days | 363.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1597.43 | 1723.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.92 | -22.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 10.04 | 8.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -1.14 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.57 | 29.61 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.98 |