← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 29, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 60% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +4% |
| Valencia CF win | 16% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF −1 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Athletic Club −1 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 32' | ⚽ | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 55' | 🟨 | Dani García · Athletic Club |
| 57' | 🟨 | Selim Amallah · Valencia CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | Fran Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 68' | ⚽ | Hugo Duro · Valencia CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ | Álex Berenguer · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 515.00 | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1739.75 | 1682.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.85 | -8.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.94 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 25.77 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 0.76 |