← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 49% | 45% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
| CA Osasuna win | 23% | 28% | 4.21 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Real Betis Balompié −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +3% |
| Over | 45% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Willian José · Real Betis Balompié |
| 54' | 🟨 | David García · CA Osasuna |
| 71' | 🟨 | Luiz Henrique · Real Betis Balompié |
| 76' | 🟨 | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 80' | 🟨 | Moi Gómez · CA Osasuna |
| 81' | 🟨 | Alejandro Catena · CA Osasuna |
| 85' | ⚽ | Rubén García · CA Osasuna |
| 90' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Assane Diao · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Herrera · CA Osasuna |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 25 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1184.00 | 1976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1762.58 | 1682.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.13 | 11.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 8.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 1.02 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 28.54 |
| state index | 0.99 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.22 |