← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 47% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz +0.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Sevilla FC +0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 48% | 2.19 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | José Mari · Cadiz |
| 3' | 🟨 | Sergio Ramos · Sevilla FC |
| 8' | ⚽ | Chris Ramos · Cadiz |
| 11' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Cadiz |
| 14' | 🟨 | Fali · Cadiz |
| 24' | 🟨 | Rominigue Kouamé · Cadiz |
| 28' | ⚽ | Darwin Machís · Cadiz |
| 37' | ⚽ | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Pires · Cadiz |
| 45' | 🟨 | Boubakary Soumaré · Sevilla FC |
| 60' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| Ivan Rakitić · Sevilla FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 665.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1627.74 | 1747.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.12 | 4.21 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 29.39 | 30.98 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.52 | 1.30 |