← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 47% | 52% | 2.09 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 25% | 21% | 4.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Villarreal CF −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 47% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 53% | 2.12 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 14' | 🟨 | Ander Guevara · Deportivo Alavés |
| 23' | 🟨 | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Antonio Sivera · Deportivo Alavés |
| 35' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Villarreal CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Abdelkabir Abqar · Deportivo Alavés |
| 48' | ⚽ | Samu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés |
| 58' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Gerard Moreno · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 51.00 | 539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1728.60 | 1582.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.69 | -31.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 14.19 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 29.69 | 27.15 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.48 |