← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 39% | 39% | 2.49 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +8% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 66% | 1.62 | value: +7% |
| Over | 40% | 34% | 2.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Marc Roca · Real Betis Balompié |
| 17' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 34' | 🟨 | Andrés Guardado · Real Betis Balompié |
| 38' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 41' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · Real Betis Balompié |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gastón Álvarez · Getafe CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Getafe CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 5.00 |
| venue | Estadio Coliseum |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 203.00 | 1176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1661.07 | 1758.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.89 | 4.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.84 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 12.91 | 12.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 0.92 |
| solidity v1 | -0.38 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.85 | 28.08 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.37 |