← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 8, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 67% | 70% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.25 | fair |
| Granada win | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona +1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Granada +1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 66% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 34% | 2.76 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Sergio Ruiz Alonso · Granada |
| 1' | ⚽ | Bryan Zaragoza · Granada |
| 29' | ⚽ | Bryan Zaragoza · Granada |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bryan Zaragoza · Granada |
| 68' | 🟨 | Miguel Rubio · Granada |
| 85' | ⚽ | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jesús Vallejo · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Neva · Granada |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Cancelo · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| coach days | 341.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 4.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1600.59 | 1939.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.00 | 14.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 47.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 67.80 |
| rest days | 7.29 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 2.00 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 25.88 |
| state index | -0.52 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 1.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 2.07 |