← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 48% | 46% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 23% | 26% | 4.38 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | José Ángel Carmona · Getafe CF |
| 2' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 9' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 13' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 24' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 27' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 29' | 🟨 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 29' | 🟥 | Domingos Duarte · Getafe CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mason Greenwood · Getafe CF |
| 38' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 26 | Shots | 3 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Abanca-Balaídos |
| 🟨 |
| Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 42' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 53' | 🟨 | Fran Beltrán · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.40 |
| coach days | 99.00 | 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1630.39 | 1660.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.50 | 6.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 8.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.82 |
| solidity v1 | -1.34 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.52 | 27.98 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.35 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.91 |