← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 53% | 48% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.79 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 22% | 29% | 4.65 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Sevilla FC −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 46% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 54% | 2.02 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Sevilla FC |
| 21' | ⚽ | Óscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 26' | ⚽ | Álvaro García · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 36' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Djibril Sow · Sevilla FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Djibril Sow · Sevilla FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Suso · Sevilla FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Aridane Hernández · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Youssef En-Nesyri · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 6.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1698.90 | 1606.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.24 | 7.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.03 | 29.06 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.56 |