← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 49% | 53% | 1.98 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| Granada win | 25% | 22% | 3.99 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Almeria −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 44' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 65' | 🟨 | Arnau Puigmal · Almeria |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Bryan Zaragoza · Granada |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ricard Sánchez · Granada |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sergio Akieme · Almeria |
| 86' | ⚽ | Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Villar · Granada |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Power Horse Stadium |
| coach days | 0.00 | 334.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1591.27 | 1599.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.60 | -16.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.66 | 27.18 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.12 |