← Primera Division 2023-24 · Wed, Sep 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 63% | 61% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 14% | 14% | 7.73 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club −0.75 | 58% | 1.67 |
| Getafe CF −0.75 | 42% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| -5' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Angileri · Getafe CF |
| -5' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 2' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 6' | ⚽ | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟥 | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 51' | ⚽ | Gastón Álvarez · Getafe CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club |
| 62' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 83' | ⚽ | Juanmi Latasa · Getafe CF |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | San Mamés Barria |
| 🟨 |
| Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Óscar Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 483.00 | 179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.52 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1750.64 | 1655.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.08 | -3.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 4.92 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -1.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.37 | 28.18 |
| state index | 1.38 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.06 |