← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 24, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 53% | 50% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.66 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 20% | 22% | 5.07 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cadiz −0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Real Betis Balompié −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 49% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 51% | 2.16 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |