← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 36% | 40% | 2.76 | value: +9% |
| Almeria win | 35% | 25% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.43 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Valencia CF +0 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.15 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Diego López · Valencia CF |
| 51' | 🟨 | Fran Pérez · Valencia CF |
| 59' | ⚽ | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 60' | 🟨 | César Montes · Almeria |
| 63' | ⚽ | Javier Guerra · Valencia CF |
| 69' | ⚽ | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Melero · Almeria |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mouctar Diakhaby · Valencia CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Largie Ramazani · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Power Horse Stadium |
| coach days | 22.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1552.84 | 1639.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.37 | 25.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | -0.91 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 23.29 | 25.98 |
| state index | -0.67 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 0.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.39 |