← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 71% | 79% | 1.37 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 10% | 6% | 10.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF −1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Getafe CF −1.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Juanmi Latasa · Getafe CF |
| 11' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · Real Madrid CF |
| 47' | ⚽ | Joselu · Real Madrid CF |
| 51' | 🟨 | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | David Soria · Getafe CF |
| 81' | 🟨 | Juan Iglesias · Getafe CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Gastón Álvarez · Getafe CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Borja Mayoral · Getafe CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 6 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Santiago Bernabéu |
| 🟨 |
| José Ángel Carmona · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 823.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1929.88 | 1653.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.42 | 9.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.20 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 7.78 | 4.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | -1.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 28.01 |
| state index | 1.47 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | -1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.34 |