← Primera Division 2023-24 · Fri, Sep 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 43% | 46% | 2.25 | value: +4% |
| Cadiz win | 30% | 25% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Villarreal CF +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal CF |
| 18' | ⚽ | Chris Ramos · Cadiz |
| 19' | 🟨 | Chris Ramos · Cadiz |
| 22' | 🟥 | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 23' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Cadiz |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Darwin Machís · Cadiz |
| 35' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | ⚽ | Darwin Machís · Cadiz |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jorge Cuenca · Villarreal CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 80' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| 🟨 |
| Luis Hernández · Cadiz |
| 82' | 🟨 | Fali · Cadiz |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santi Comesaña · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 608.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1640.68 | 1782.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.51 | -24.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 6.02 | 5.08 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 1.05 |
| solidity v1 | 0.19 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 30.89 | 26.72 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.35 |