← Primera Division 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada win | 35% | 34% | 2.81 | fair |
| Mallorca win | 33% | 33% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Granada +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Mallorca +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 59% | 1.50 | fair |
| Over | 35% | 41% | 2.88 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Miguel Rubio · Granada |
| 16' | 🟨 | Óscar Melendo · Granada |
| 33' | 🟨 | José Copete · Mallorca |
| 38' | ⚽ | Abdón Prats · Mallorca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sergio Ruiz Alonso · Granada |
| 41' | 🟨 | Predrag Rajković · Mallorca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca |
| 46' | ⚽ | Bryan Zaragoza · Granada |
| 51' | 🟨 | Giovanni González · Mallorca |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cyle Larin · Mallorca |
| 70' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 27 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Granada | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Myrto Uzuni · Granada |
| 87' | ⚽ | Samú Costa · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Javi Llabrés · Mallorca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 298.00 | 543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1615.35 | 1649.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.29 | 11.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 4.92 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -1.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.92 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 27.48 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.28 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.97 |