← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, May 28, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz win | 38% | 31% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 31% | 37% | 3.25 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo −0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Cadiz −0.25 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 44% | 2.67 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Augusto Solari · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 10' | 🟨 | Anthony Lozano · Cadiz |
| 16' | 🟨 | Javi Galán · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 27' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 39' | 🟨 | Théo Bongonda · Cadiz |
| 45' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 48' | 🟨 | Luca De La Torre · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 59' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Cadiz |
| 60' | 🟨 | Sergi Guardiola · Cadiz |
| 60' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 9 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| 🟨 |
| Óscar Rodríguez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 76' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fede San Emeterio · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 512.00 | 208.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1581.04 | 1604.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.32 | -38.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| league points | 38.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.98 | 4.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 30.05 | 24.43 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.68 |