← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: César Soto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 42% | 42% | 2.31 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 30% | 33% | 3.22 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC +0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Real Madrid CF +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Rafa Mir · Sevilla FC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Aurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid CF |
| 69' | ⚽ | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 83' | 🟥 | Marcos Acuña · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Óliver Torres · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dani Ceballos · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 23 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 87.00 |
| 725.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1746.78 | 1852.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.10 | -25.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| league points | 49.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 2.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 1.58 |
| solidity v1 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.94 | 29.33 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.93 | 1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.44 |