← Primera Division 2022-23 · Wed, May 24, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 41% | 53% | 2.39 | value: +28% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 31% | 21% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Club Atlético de Madrid +0.25 | 47% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 55% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 26 | Shots | 16 |
| 13 | On target | 7 |
| 16 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand