← Primera Division 2022-23 · Wed, May 24, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 42% | 42% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 41% | 3.01 | value: +24% |
| Getafe CF win | 25% | 17% | 3.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Getafe CF −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 61% | 1.47 | fair |
| Over | 34% | 39% | 2.83 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · Getafe CF |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gastón Álvarez · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aitor Ruibal · Real Betis Balompié |
| 60' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · Real Betis Balompié |
| 69' | ⚽ | Omar Alderete · Getafe CF |
| 78' | 🟥 | Germán Pezzella · Real Betis Balompié |
| 84' | 🟨 | David Soria · Getafe CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Portu · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Benito Villamarín |
| 4.40 |
| coach days | 1026.00 | 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1773.35 | 1629.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.96 | -18.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.30 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| league points | 56.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 36.60 |
| rest days | 3.04 | 4.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -1.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.20 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.70 | 27.08 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -1.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.38 |