← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, May 21, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 44% | 54% | 2.25 | value: +20% |
| Valencia CF win | 29% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Real Madrid CF +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 42% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Thierry Correia · Valencia CF |
| 33' | ⚽ | Diego López · Valencia CF |
| 57' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · Valencia CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Eray Cömert · Valencia CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rodrygo · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giorgi Mamardashvili · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yunus Musah · Valencia CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 4 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 109.00 | 719.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1606.07 | 1865.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.61 | -31.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 90.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 1.72 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.73 | 28.16 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | 1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.55 |