← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, May 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martínez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadiz win | 44% | 42% | 2.21 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 28% | 32% | 3.49 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cadiz −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Valladolid −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 48% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Valladolid |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jawad El Yamiq · Valladolid |
| 47' | 🟨 | Lucas Rosa · Valladolid |
| 69' | ⚽ | Théo Bongonda · Cadiz |
| 73' | 🟨 | Anthony Lozano · Cadiz |
| 75' | 🟨 | Javi Sánchez · Valladolid |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Théo Bongonda · Cadiz |
| 77' | 🟨 | Théo Bongonda · Cadiz |
| 80' | 🟥 | Martin Hongla · Valladolid |
| 86' | 🟨 | Fede San Emeterio · Cadiz |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| 🟨 |
| Mamadou Mbaye · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 503.00 | 48.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1575.82 | 1557.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.52 | -27.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.43 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 30.05 | — |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.21 |