← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sun, May 14, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Ortiz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Valladolid win | 38% | 44% | 2.51 | value: +10% |
| Sevilla FC win | 33% | 29% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valladolid +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Sevilla FC +0 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 48% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 52% | 2.08 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |