← Primera Division 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Carlos del Cerro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 45% | 43% | 2.18 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Athletic Club −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 48% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 52% | 2.12 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Villarreal CF |
| 24' | ⚽ | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
| 37' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pau Torres · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dani Parejo · Villarreal CF |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club |
| 50' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Villarreal CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Aitor Paredes · Athletic Club |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ander Herrera · Athletic Club |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 61' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Aitor Paredes · Villarreal CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ | Álex Baena · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 1046.00 | 346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1778.25 | 1735.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.32 | -0.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.30 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 54.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 9.96 | 8.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.82 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.98 | 27.91 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.26 | 1.21 |