← Primera Division 2022-23 · Fri, May 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 44% | 50% | 2.25 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | 2.91 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 23% | 22% | 4.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Cadiz −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 61% | 1.41 | fair |
| Over | 31% | 39% | 3.20 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | José Mari · Cadiz |
| 7' | 🟨 | Chris Ramos · Cadiz |
| 16' | ⚽ | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
| 32' | 🟨 | Manu Morlanes · Mallorca |
| 50' | 🟨 | Kang-in Lee · Mallorca |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Mallorca |
| 58' | 🟨 | Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Mallorca |
| 64' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Cadiz |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Mallorca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mallorca | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Visit Mallorca Estadi |
| coach days | 437.00 | 496.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1600.07 | 1583.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.93 | -12.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 41.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.00 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 8.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.35 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 30.05 |
| state index | 0.00 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.07 |